Investment Cycles

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

While corrections are inevitable, we still appear to be a long way from the peak in the investment cycle. Shares are not unambiguously overvalued and on some measures are still cheap, uneven and below trend global and Australian growth is extending the economic recovery cycle, monetary conditions look set to remain easy and investors are far from euphoric.


It is now six years since the global financial crisis ended. From their 2009 lows US shares are up 212%, global shares are up 159% and Australian shares are up 91% (held back by higher interest rates, the commodity collapse & the high $A). Despite this, there seem to be constant predictions of a new disaster.

This note looks at where we are in the investment cycle.

/userfiles/Files/Secure Files/Investment-cycles Apr 2105.pdf