Review of 2014 Outlook for 2015
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Key points 2014 has been a positive but somewhat constrained and messy year for investors as the global economy remained in a cyclical “sweet spot” despite various threats, but Australian shares underperformed. 2015 is likely to see okay but uneven global growth, low inflation and easy monetary conditions. While the US is likely to start gradually raising rates, other countries including Australia are likely to ease monetary policy. Against this backdrop the bull market in shares and most growth assets is likely to continue. However, with shares dependent on rising earnings, volatility is likely to be a bit higher and returns okay but constrained. The main things to keep an eye on are: when/if the Fed starts to raise rates, Europe, the Chinese property slump, and growth outside of mining in Australia.
2014 – a positive year for investors…mostly
2014 has had its share of worries with a range of geopolitical threats, uneven global growth, the end of quantitative easing in the US, plunging oil and iron ore prices and a debilitating debate about budget cuts in Australia. Yet again, events have conspired to indicate deflation as opposed to inflation is more of a risk. Despite all this it was still a reasonable environment for most assets.